This is the second of a two-part essay on why Lean Startups are so hard.
In my last essay I explained Why Lean Startups are Hard: because we’re biologically wired to believe crazy stuff without evidence.
First we believe, then we rationalize.
This is pretty bad news for a lean startup. It means our inspirations—the startup ideas that hit us at 4 AM, the new ventures we’re ready to pour our heart and soul into—are most likely wrong.
Fighting Back Against Our Genes
Fortunately, we homo sapiens have spent a few hundred years creating a tool to help us combat our inclinations: The Scientific Method. And while far from perfect, it is the best tool we have for helping us overcome our biases.1
Being a lean startup entrepreneur requires us to embrace the principles of the Scientific Method. 2
And while we DON’T need our college science textbooks to be an entrepreneur, we DO need to apply reason and critical thinking to determine validity of our business model assumptions. We need to find support for our conclusions instead of constantly justifying preconceived ones. 3
Michael Shermer, Founder Skeptic Magazine
Fortunately, we can learn from another community that attempts to apply this type of critical thinking to various aspects of their lives: Skeptics. 4
Why Skepticism
Learning to THINK differently is the hardest pivot. 5
If we don’t learn to think skeptically then every tactic and strategy in our Lean Startup toolchest is worthless.
If we’re not ready to question fundamental business model assumptions then creating a Lean Canvas is a waste of time. Ditto customer development if we ask leading questions designed to elicit the answer we want to hear.
We can’t pivot while dogmatically attached to our ideas—it’s that simple.
How, then, can we possibly summon the energy to wake up every day and find passion for entrepreneurship, knowing that we’re probably wrong?
I’ve actually found an approach that works for me.
Passion for the Process
Skepticism is not a position; it’s a process.
— Dr. Michael Shermer
I can live with doubt and uncertainty. I think it’s much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong.
— Richard P. Feynman
I am no longer passionate about any single idea of mine. I am passionate about solving problems for markets and the discovery process in entrepreneurship. 6.
I’m excited about searching for that 10% portion of my ideas that are right—that occasional signal from the market that I’m onto something. What a thrill to know I may be the first person to discover a new model!
Ideas are weak, fragile concepts that are easily ridiculed. Holding on to them against odds and evidence can be a scary, lonely endeavor.
Process is power.
When people challenge my hypotheses, I try to approach the conversation as one between two rational people searching for the truth. This approach disarms critics and helps me see my own blind spots.
I wake up every day (like you, often at 4 AM) asking myself, “what is my biggest risk and am I addressing it?” It makes entrepreneurship a lot less scary.
Even when we follow a rigorous discovery process with a market and problem we care about, some degree of failure is inevitable; remember, that just means more chances to learn, and pushes us toward success on our next startup.
Becoming a Skeptic
Learning to think skeptically is itself a process that can take years. It even requires using the language of logic.
In coming essays I’ll talk more about how I use concepts like Survivorship Bias, Argument from Authority, and Confirmation Bias – the worst of them all – in my startups.
Here are some resources that can help (suggest more in the comments below and I’ll add them):
Michael Shermer’s books, essays, and articles in Scientific American
Skeptics Guide to the Universe Podcast
Point of Inquiry Podcast
Skeptic Magazine
Don’t Believe Everything You Think
Skepchick
- Some studies suggest that more than 50% of all published medical research is wrong. Think about that for a second. The scientific community has a couple hundred years’ head-start on us entrepreneurs, and yet the most talented among them—who follow this rigorous discovery process—usually get it wrong. What, then, are the odds that our first startup idea is right? ↩
- Check out the National Science Foundation’s I-Corps program. No institution in the world is better suited to advance these principles than NSF and use them to help build our products and our companies. ↩
- This why the funding community needs to co-evolve with us. Expecting us to “pitch” an idea puts us in the intellectually dishonest position of attempting to justify our ideas on little evidence. ↩
- A common misconception is to associate skepticism with “cynicism,” “debunking,” or “negativism.” It is simply the application of critical reasoning to reach conclusions. ↩
- The few entrepreneurs I meet who actually apply Lean Startup principles tend to be over 35. I suspect it takes most of us decades to understand the importance of questioning our conclusions. (It did for me.) ↩
- Actually, I’m not that interested in startup ideas generally. But I’m really interested in how people are figuring out whether they work. ↩
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Great post. You are absolutely right. It’s tough to truly trust in the process and not in our own assumptions. Still working on that one. Maybe when I reach 35, I will get better at it
Just finished this book. Wow. I have tons and tons of notes on how to improve my upcoming ‘pet project’. I would encourage anyone who has either a business plan in mind or is currently working on something, to grab this book and take tons and tons of notes. This book will make your next project better, and show you exactly how to iterate for at least the next 5 years. Ries has figured out how to take almost all the risk out of entrepreneurship, by taking away all assumptions. Get it!!