I ran across this hilarious post from Michael Skena. There is a service called Trade Sports that allows you to write futures contracts on who will win the nomination from each party.
To quote Michael:
For instance, if you firmly believed that John McCain was going to be the Republican party nominee for president in 2008, you could purchase a future of this outcome at a 51.7 percentage chance (at the time of this posting). That is, you are betting $5.17 that if you hold the contract till the end of the nomination process and McCain wins the nomination, you will receive $10. If he does not receive it, you will lose your bet of $5.17.
Nominations are interesting, but we want to know who is going to win the whole she-bang. Here are the current front-runners. This data is updated real-time, but as of this writing the betters are giving Hillary the edge.
{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
Kevin, Thanks for the shout out! As you can see, the futures for who will win overall haven’t been traded as heavily, so there prices are rather jumpy. They’ll start really heating up next year, probably around the fall. It should be an interesting ride though!